The Rockets, Carmelo, and Where They Stand Moving Forward

The Houston Rockets do not seem worried about this common opinion regarding the state of the franchise entering the 2018-2019 campaign.

When asked about the potential this upcoming season in July, coach D'Antoni confidently off put that notion.

D'Antoni said, "I'm confident and I love our guys. And I think the worst we're going to be is great and hopefully we can take that last step."

He coached the Rockets to the aforementioned best record in the wild west last season, and came within one win of reaching the NBA Finals. There is plenty, and I mean plenty, of merit behind his belief that the team will get back to where last season ended, which is game 7 of the Western Conference Finals

Also, when recently asked about whether he stresses about how tough some of their opponents have become over the off-season, Chris Paul had a similar answer to his coaches.

"Well, I don't know if you know but i've been in the Western Conference my whole career. It's never been down for me since i've been in the league. So nothing's changed for me but the day of the week."

Last seasons 1st place franchise of the Western Conference lost two key cog's to a team that enjoyed a top six defense in the NBA last season. Which, in turn, has brought to the light questions regarding their contention for the upcoming season. 

What have they lost?

In Ariza and Mbah a Moute, yes, the Rockets lost production, length, veteran presences, and trust. Ariza (signed with the Suns) and Mbah a Moute (signed with the Clippers) no longer being around is worth noting. However both, even at their peak production, were role players. An impactful dynamic regarding both Mbah a Moute and Ariza outside of defense and veteran presences is their length. Defensively, both of those two were able to switch and guard multiple positions while also providing great length. The Rockets were fifth in steals at 8.5 per game, and that in large part was due to the ever-switching system deployed defensively. The Rockets were terrific with getting deflections and this was a direct result of the length and activity their roster presented last season. Their production could most definitely be replicated. Casing point here with Ariza.

Thank you to @bballbreakdown for these on/off numbers on Ariza last season

Even more, Ariza struggled mightily to make his open shots in the playoffs. Mbah a Moute practically had no effect on the series vs the Warriors due to his shoulder dislocation, but the fact that the team had Golden State on the ropes without him to deploy speaks to how replaceable his production is. Both Ariza and Mbah a Moute were valuable, but not invaluable.

What do they currently have?

James Ennis' stats the last few seasons, which'll go up in productivity with Houston

The Rockets have responded by adding James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony, while they also have their sights on adding another wing defender, which we will visit later.

At the point of attack they have one of the best to ever do it in Chris Paul, who uses his understanding of offense in reverse to disrupt the oppositions flow. There's PJ Tucker, who is one of the anchors of this defense and epitomizes high IQ and toughness on that end of the floor. Then, they have Clint Capela protecting the rim and doing so at an elite level of production. James Ennis, who is more of a replacement for Luc Mbah a Moute as a wing off the bench, will most definitely bring defense to add to this team. He will also do so on a cheap deal and at a younger age. Switching ends of the floor while he is on the court should be fun to see as he fills the lanes in transition exceptionally and can finish above the rim. Small sample size due to the roles he played on his two former teams, but Ennis was impactful and made the most of his touches, especially from deep. 

What more could they add?

On their radar are guys like Kent Bazemore, James Johnson, and Nicolas Batum. Attaining one of those three guys in exchange for Ryan Anderson (and potentially a combination of 2nd round picks, etc.) are realistic scenarios to bring in one final capable/viable/active defender who can also hit open shots at a respectable and efficient clip. Judging by last season, Bazemore would be the better player of the three, but his stats could be slightly inflated due to his role with the Hawks. However, with a more defined role, he may be the best fit of the three players. I personally like him on the roster, but he lacks the size that was so valuable for Houston last year. He is however hyper-active on both ends of the floor and would be a great fit. Adding one of the three aforementioned players will suffice regarding filling that void at the starting small forward spot.

Does adding Carmelo Anthony push the needle?

Yes, absolutely. A 16.2 point scorer who hit his 3-pointers at a .357% clip last season will undoubtedly look even better in Rocket red. Houston had three players that could go and create their own shots/make plays last season, and that got them within a game of the Finals. Adding Carmelo, a Hall of Fame player who will always be a threat to score, in a system that predicates itself on scoring, will work. He will not be tasked with the nightly duties of carrying an offense as he was in Denver and New York, but he will also not have the out of rhythm touches that he received in Oklahoma City. The "Chris Paul effect" with Melo coming to Houston will be resounding and evident early and often. Paul, the "Point God" knows how to get scorers going, and knows how to get his teammates the ball in positions where they are most comfortable and do not have to work as hard to do what they do best. He has made a Hall of Fame career of getting the most out of players of any stature, and the fact that Carmelo will be motivated, while also having a bond and relationship with CP3 that goes far beyond basketball, will make this situation a fruitful one. 

Carmelo will bring to the Rockets a spark of scoring, toughness, and veteran savvy. He will also bring something new to the team that Chris Paul brought last season, which was a slow the pace and score at an elite clip from the midrange, which proved to be an effective and dynamic change of pace especially in the playoffs. I expect for him to start, but then be staggered a lot like Mike D'Antoni did with Chris Paul last season. Carmelo should be staggered accordingly with Chris Paul, which in turn will expedite the building of their chemistry on the floor. I also feel that Carmelo will spend almost all of his time at the power forward position. He is a liability defensively, so playing him at the four will allow for him to use more of his strength and play against players of a similar stature and mobility as his own. The issue will come with the Rockets ever-switching defense. He will be picked on defensively, much like the Rockets did with Curry last season, and it will be up to him to timely stops needed to be playable down the stretch of close games. 

Carmelo also brings another dynamic clutch performer to the team. The Rockets already had two of the best in CP3 and the MVP, but with Melo now on the roster that is three players that can close out a game. His isolation play from the elbow and post will become an integral part of the team's offense, bringing a new wrinkle to one of the best offenses in NBA history. He will get more in-rhythm touches sharing the court with Paul, so come crunch time he will be in the flow of the game and will be able to prove his worth.

Whether he will start or not remains to be seen. Last season, Ryan Anderson started at the four for Houston in the beginning of the season, but after his production dipped dramatically and he was in and out of the line-up due to injury, he would eventually lose that starting spot to the defensive minded anchor that is PJ Tucker. Carmelo may very well start for Houston depending on how effective he can be, but it is not unlikely that he may come off the bench either. Based on numbers from last season, here are what the potential starting line-ups could prove to provide production-wise for the Rockets.

Should Carmelo start? Or... lol

Carmelo Anthony should be given opportunities to start, but it will depend on exactly who the Rockets have to deploy at the starting small forward position come the start of the season. He will not be the starting small forward, but i can most definitely see him in that stretch four starting role, as he would bring even more fire power to the starting line-up for Houston. I can see him fitting well next to James Ennis and Clint Capela who should both be able to cover up for his defensive mistakes. I can also see where Melo fully embraces a role off the bench, which would make for another killer combo between him and Eric Gordon off the bench. Those two staggered with Paul and Harden makes for an almost unmatched surplus of firepower offensively. Each of the two line-up's above will likely be seen in the upcoming campaign for Houston, but I feel as if the first line-up will be what is deployed on opening night, with Carmelo at the starting stretch four. I do expect to see plenty of small ball attack line-ups with Melo sharing the frontcourt with Tucker, which will be fun to see.

Moving forward

Houston has done a solid job in keeping a majority of their core intact, allowing for them to remain in legit contention to raise the Larry O'Brien trophy come June. The dynamic guard pairing of Paul and Harden will be what takes them there, and that chemistry will have a full season under its belt to build on, which is scary. They now have a new addition that will absolutely help in Carmelo, and will likely have another veteran presence on the wing at the 3 in the starting line-up. The Rockets will have their hands full yet again in the gauntlet that is the Western Conference, but they will be well equipped and as hungry as the year before to prove doubters wrong yet again. 

Time will tell how much better the Rockets roster will be soon, as Daryl Morey is surely looking to make one last change/upgrade to the roster. Until then, the Rockets should be happy with the roster they've compiled should the season start today.

They are indeed well-equipped to run it back!

All stats mentioned come directly from http://www.basketball-reference.com, http://www.stats.nba.com, or http://www.nbamath.com unless otherwise attributed.