Rockets vs Warriors: Preview and Prediction

At last, the inevitable collision course that was a Rockets (4th) vs Warriors (1st) series is primed to start Sunday afternoon in Oakland, CA @ 3:30 PM ET.

Last Season

Although a round later with the stakes slightly higher because of that, we were treated to one of the best series in recent memory. The Rockets, with the otherworldly impact of then new addition Chris Paul, were able to not only compete with the Warriors but out play them to the tune of a 3-2 lead through 5 games in the series. However, in that game 5 win for the Rockets, it was also Paul that suffered a hamstring injury which would swing the series. Even sans their leader in the physical, he remained ever-present on the sideline, though the Rockets would go on to lose the next two games leading to a 4-3 Warriors series win. Golden State would ride that momentum en route to their fourth straight finals appearance, solidifying their status as back-to-back champions.

As mentioned in my most recent article here on BaselineHoops, the Rockets were able to push the Warriors more than any team has in their 5 year reign of dominance over the Western Conference. Their President of Basketball Operations, Bob Meyers, went as far as to say so himself. This was the first time the organization had felt somewhat defeated by any Western Conference opponent since, ironically, Chris Paul's Los Angeles Clippers were able to put them out in the first round in 2013. The Rockets are by far the best equipped tactically and on paper for the Warriors in the West and arguably in the NBA.

Regular Season Series

The Rockets have been locked in since the end of last seasons Conference Finals. Their mantra all season has been to "Run It Back," and they now have another shot at the reigning back-to-back champions.

The Rockets were the ones who dominated the series to the tune of 3 games to 1. Here is the how the regular season games went: G1 107-86 Rockets win @ Houston, G2 135-134 Rockets win in OT @ Golden State, G3 118-112 Rockets win @ Golden State, G4 106-104 Warriors win @ Houston. Again, these results are not all-telling because of the difference in scheduling leading up to those games as well as players missing games (Curry missed game one, Paul missed game two, Harden missed game three, and Durant missed game four).

The Match Up

This is another collision of the two best offenses in the NBA (Warriors ranked first), and two defenses that struggled to find their rhythm on the defensive end early on but finished both finished top ten in "post all-star break" rankings on that end of the floor (Rockets 2nd and Warriors 7th). Both teams continued to peak more and more as the playoffs grew closer, as expected. Each of these entities are no different than what each brought to the table last season.

Stylistically each of these teams goes about their business differently on offense, yet similarly on defense. Everyone is aware of the ball movement/player movement offense deployed by the Warriors that is also coupled with numerous off-ball screens to free up their all-time great shooters, back door cuts, and precision passing. Everyone is also aware of the 3-pt heavy, much maligned and predictable isolation heavy offense the Rockets run with their hall of fame tandem of guards. Defensively, both teams deploy an ever-switching system but both go about it in a slightly different manner.

Injuries

Outside of the obvious absence being DeMarcus Cousins, both teams are healthy and whole.

Pivotal Areas to Watch for

The statistical areas to pay most attention to in this series will be rebounding, points off turnovers, points in transition, 3-pt field goals made, and pace of play.

Miscellaneous Info

There is plenty of history between these two teams, but here are a few individual match-ups to watch for: Paul vs Curry, Rivers vs Curry, Tucker vs Durant, Capela vs Warriors frontcourt, Rockets bench vs Warriors bench.

I am curious as to what the Rockets rotation will look like. Their starting line up of Paul-Harden-Gordon-Tucker-Capela is a given, but outside of Rivers, I am curious as to how their rotation goes with House, Shumpert, Green, Faried, Nene. That is 11 players listed, but because playoff rotations are shortened I am curious as to which 2 of the latter 5 names will not play as much. It'll be a game to game fluctuation, but this depth (more than the advantage they had over GS last season) will prove to be the x-factor team-wise for the Rockets.

Eric Gordon will be the individual x-factor for the Rockets in this series and moving forward. Through 5 games in the playoffs so far, Gordon is averaging 15.2 ppg on an outstanding 48.6% from 3-pt range. He is also a very underrated defender and is coming off a series where he was the primary defender on Donovan Mitchell and held the star sophomore guard to 26.7% from the field while he was on the court, according to HoopsHype. Well well well below his typical average of 43.4%. This is important because Gordon will now be matched up with Klay Thompson.

For the Warriors, their defense left much to be desired in their previous series vs the Clippers. It'll be interesting to see if this translates to this series, or if it was a "lack of respect" that most chalked it up to be that impacted their performance. They gave up no less than 104 points in each of the 6 games in the series, including two games where they surrendered over 125 points. Their 111.5 defensive rating has them second to last amongst teams remaining, the only team with a worse DefRtg worse than theirs will be the winner of the Denver v. Spurs series. That is not ideal, and not like the Warriors of the past.

My Prediction

All things considered, I am going with the Rockets in 6 although I can most certainly see the series going 7 games (with the 7th game being in Golden State). I do still have the Rockets even if the series does go 7 games.

As always, thank you for the read and feel free to speak with me on about this series or on anything basketball in general.

This will be a great series, driven by storylines and high intensity. Here we go.

*All stats and information provided come directly from bballref.com or espn.com/stats unless stated otherwise*