Predicting Both All Star Rosters
- richardstaplejr
- Jan 19, 2019
- 18 min read
The latest batch of all-star voting returns just came back, and with that came a few surprises. Perhaps the most surprising being Luka Doncic being voted 2nd amongst all Western Conference frontcourt players, finishing ahead of the likes of Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic. While fan voting only accounts for 50% for the total vote, there are bound to be snubs. With that said, here is who I believe should be in the All Star Game, with the reserves included (two backcourt players, three frontcourt players, and two additional wild cards).
West Starter #1 - Stephen Curry (G - Golden State Warriors)
Stats: 29.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.4 APG, 49% FG, 45% 3FG, 62 eFG%
While it was too good to be sustainable, could you believe that at one point this season, Curry had 50/50/90 shooting splits. Curry is having his best campaign since his absurd second MVP campaign. His shooting numbers have been absolutely outstanding, and he's hitting the most three pointers of his career, knocking 5.3 of them down per game. He's also attempting more threes than ever at 11.8. He's also quickly rising up the all time three pointers made list, jumping into the bronze medal place at third. He's also done this in about half the time of the only two above him, Ray Allen and Reggie Miller. It seems like we're not talking about Steph's season enough because it's been a drama-filled season for the Dubs, but if he's playing like his 2016 MVP self, it spells doom for the rest of the league.
West Starter #2 - James Harden (G - Houston Rockets)
Stats: 35.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 8.5 APG, 2.0 SPG, 44% FG, 38% 3FG
James Harden said that he is coming for his 2nd straight MVP award, and so far, the Beard hasn't told a lie. What Harden has done for this Houston team, especially without Chris Paul, has been nothing short of incredible. Not too long ago, James Harden averaged 40.8 points over a 10 game stretch and scored over 400 total points in that same time period, a feat only the two greatest shooting guards of all time, Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, can lay claim too. Houston was once as low as a top 3-seed in the West without Chris Paul, but thanks to his stellar play, Harden has launched the Rockets right back into playoff territory as the 4th seed.
He's also dropped a 50 point triple double in a game against the Lakers, giving him four in his career, more than anyone else ever. He led the Rockets down 20 against the Warriors without Chris Paul AND Eric Gordon to beat the Warriors in an OT classic which concluded with Harden hitting an incredibly difficult dagger over Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. And despite it coming in a loss, he just dropped another 58 against the Nets. He's getting what he wants, whenever he wants it. His current PPG average matches that of the legendary scoring season of Kobe in 2006. If the MVP race ended tomorrow, our winner is an easy choice.
West Starter #3 - LeBron James (F - Los Angeles Lakers)
Stats: 27.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.1 APG, 52 FG%, 26.4 PER
The seemingly ageless LeBron James is having another remarkable season when you consider his increasing age and workload. He is the only superstar to reach over a million votes on the latest All-Star returns, and no one should be surprised. He's widely considered to still be the best player in the league, he's 5th in the league in PPG, and in spite of him having one of his worst free throw shooting campaigns in his career, he has still done a great job in leading the Lakers back to playoff contention. If there is ever a time the Lakers need LeBron to recover from his groin injury, it would be now. Since his untimely exit from the Lakers' Christmas showdown, the Lakers have gone 4-7, plummeting from a top four seed in the West to fighting for their playoff lives. LeBron should be good for the Lakers by late next week, but at over 3 million fan votes so far, it looks like LeBron will be the leading vote getter and rightfully so.
West Starter #4 - Kevin Durant (F - Golden State Warriors)
Stats: 28.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 6.0 APG, 50% FG, 25.5 PER
Doncic fans will be undoubtedly upset, and while I'm as much of a fan of the rookie wonder as the next guy, I cannot conceive that the remaining 50% of the vote will go in his favor. While this has certainly been a drama-filled campaign for the reigning two-time Finals MVP, especially considering the uncertainty of his future, make no mistake that he is still, at his very worst, a top 3 player in this league. Serving as an effective option for Golden State, he has ascended to a realm of greatness where it looks ordinary. In addition, he is averaging over 6 assists a game this year, easily his career best. He remains efficient from the floor, and when he has the hot hand, there is little the rest of the league can do to stop him. Unless the other players in the league he plays in and members of the media are buying into the Luka hype to an extent we don't know, KD should be rightfully starting.
West Starter #5 - Anthony Davis (C - New Orleans Pelicans)
Stats: 29.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 50% FG
Rounding out the starters for the West in the middle, we have another big name who has been circulating with rumors that he may be leaving the Pelicans join the Lakers, which may be by trade. What Davis will be doing only he knows, but what we all know is that he has been absolutely fantastic once again. He is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. Unfortunately, his individual greatness has not translated to a successful Pelicans team. Coming off a very impressive 2017-2018 campaign in which the Pelicans unexpectedly made the 2nd round, they have floundered heavily this season. They currently sit with a 21-25 record, 12th in the West. Anthony Davis has said that he wants to emphasize winning, and if that is his desire, we may seem him in a different jersey by the end of this calendar year. Did you know that he's only 25, by the way?
West Reserve #1 - Paul George (F - Oklahoma City Thunder)
Stats: 26.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 38% 3FG
Not exactly the toughest of decisions here. Paul George is easily having his most complete and best season as a pro, dominating on both ends of the basketball court. He is the main reason why the Oklahoma City Thunder currently sit at a 26-18 record, good for the fourth best record in the Western Conference. He's also first in the league in total steals and second in steals per game, trailing only his starting point guard. Whether or not the Thunder have enough to compete for a title remains to be seen, but if George can sustain this high level of play, there is no reason to believe Oklahoma won't raise some eyebrows come playoff time.
West Reserve #2 - Nikola Jokic (C - Denver Nuggets)
Stats: 19.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 50% FG
The Denver Nuggets have not sent a player to the All Star Game since 2011 (Carmelo Anthony), but that should change this year. Jokic is the engine behind what has to be considered one of the biggest surprises in the season, being the 1 seeded Denver Nuggets. If you want just an idea of how absurd Jokic's passing game is, he is the only center whose name is not Wilt Chamberlain to average at least 7.5 assists per game. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired, his offensive game is unbelievably polished, as he can beat you from anywhere. His astute court vision has also put many opposing teams at disadvantages as well. Perhaps Denver's success could be considered fools gold, but Jokic has held up his end of the deal so far.
West Reserve #3 - Karl-Anthony Towns (C - Minnesota Timberwolves)
Stats: 22.2 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 BPG, 50% FG
Karl Anthony Towns is growing a reputation for being one of the league's softe players, especially as Jimmy Butler's teammate. However, his individual talent is too hard to ignore, and it's one of the reasons why, in spite of a turbulent season which has seen Andrew Wiggins falling well below expectations and Butler requesting to be traded, the Timberwolves are still only 3.5 games out of the loss column for the final spot in the Western playoffs. Towns' shooting hasn't been as great as his career average (49% to 53%), but he has still been extremely impressive.
West Reserve #4 - Damian Lillard (G - Portland Trailblazers)
Stats: 26.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 6.0 APG, 23.5 PER
It always seems to be the same story with Lillard and the Trail Blazers year after year. They seem to be good enough to make the playoffs, but evidently, they are not good enough to anything beyond that, as they have been swept out of the 1st round the past two years. Despite that, Lillard has been staying true to the process and is having another great individual season. While Lillard hasn't proven he can take the Blazers far in the playoffs, getting a playoff spot in the West is no easy task, and sitting at sixth place, it's only fair to give the best player on that team his due.
West #5 - DeMar DeRozan (G - San Antonio Spurs)
Stats: 21.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 6.4 APG, 47% FG
The Spurs were also a team that was struggling and looked like they may be kissing the playoffs goodbye. But right now, they are tied with the Blazers for the sixth seed in the Western Conference. While there is plenty of credit to go around, DeMar has taken the forefront and is having his most complete season of his NBA career, as exhibited by the fact that he is averaging 6 rebounds and 6 assists for the first time in his NBA career. He's also having a fairly decent year defensively when compared to his run in Toronto.
And now for the wildcards....
West #6 - Russell Westbrook (G - Oklahoma City Thunder)
Stats: 21.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 10.7 APG, 2.5 SPG
Believe it or not, I came so very close to leaving him off of this list. Russell Westbrook is easily having the worst shooting campaign of his career. He's shooting only 41% from the field, 24% from 3, and a career low 64 percent from the free throw line (!!!). In addition, he's sporting an eFG% of a pitiful 44. Yet, I still have him here. Why is that? I'm not a fan of Westbrook's playing style, but if there is one thing I can acknowledge, it's that the Thunder feed off of his relentless motor and playing style. He's also entering his third straight campaign averaging a triple double, and I don't care what anyone says about how he gets those stats. That is not an easy thing to do. And in spite of what looks to be on the surface a terrible year, also consider he's leading the league in assists and steals.
West #7 - Luka Doncic (F - Dallas Mavericks)
Stats: 20.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.1 APG
Okay, I caved. At first, I did think all of the hype surrounding Luka was just that. Hype. He was certainly talented, but it's easy to think that he's just the flavor of the month. But I assure you that Mavericks management are still celebrating gaining Doncic in the draft night trade for Trae Young. Luka's popularity has risen to unheard of levels, as he has finished 2nd amongst all Western Conference frontcourt players. And unlike Zaza Pachulia for the past couple of seasons, he's actually deserving of a selection. Considering all of the big moments he's already had in a Mavericks uniform, the big shots that he has hit and the polishing of his game, I'll give him the benefit of any doubters. Right now, he's on pace to join Oscar Robertson, LeBron James, Tyreke Evans and Michael Jordan as the only players to average 20/5/5 in their rookie season.The Mavericks have found their next franchise star.
Snubs:
Clint Capela: This was the one that hurt me the most. In the midst of Harden's excellent season, we forget that Houston's starting big man is averaging 17 points, 13 rebounds and almost 2 blocks a game on 63% shooting. That's good enough for any all star selection, and had he been in the East, he gets in easily. Also, the frontcourt is pretty crowded in the West. It can't be helped. He's also ineligible to play due to his recent injury.
Tobias Harris: This is why picking All Stars, especially in the West, is a tough task. The Clippers are the fourth seed after missing the playoffs altogether last year. Harris is putting up career averages in points (20.9), rebounds (8.0), three point percentage (44%), and a field goal percentage of at least 50 for the first time in his career. This hurts me a lot, too.
Devin Booker: Unfortunately for Booker, he is a victim of the "great player on a a bad team" stigma associated against all star snubs every year. Booker's scoring (24.8) is approximately the same as last year, and his assists have jumped to a career high at almost 7 per game (Ayton certainly helps). Problem is Phoenix is in the "teams who haven't reached 10 wins yet" club. Their only fellow club member? Cleveland. Booker might get a nod if the Suns were at least batting .500.
De'Aaron Fox - I wanted to reward the Sacramento Kings for being competitive this year in the playoff hunt, and Fox's play is certainly all star deserving. He's scoring almost 18 a night, dishing out 7.5 assists and stealing the ball almost 2 times a game. All this while shooting 47 percent from the field and 38 from 3. While he may not be in the running for an All Star selection, he certainly is up there for Most Improved Player.
And now for the Eastern Conference.....
East Starter #1 - Kyrie Irving (G - Boston Celtics)
Stats: 23.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, 49% FG, 40% 3FG
Kyrie Irving has his lowest PPG average since his injury-riddled 2015-2016 campaign, but the Celtics' best player is making up for it in other areas, averaging career highs in rebounds, assists and steals. Boston has not gotten off to the start that many people were expecting, as they sit at 27-18 and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Considering that the Celtics were one quarter away from making the NBA Finals without the services of Irving and Gordon Hayward, many naturally expected for them to be even better. Unfortunately, the Celtics have suffered from inconsistent play and regression of players such as Jaylen Brown. Despite that, Irving has come through in numerous clutch situations for the Celtics against fellow Eastern Conference rivals in the Raptors and the Sixers this season. No reason why he shouldn't hold this spot.
East Starter #2 - Dwyane Wade (G - Miami Heat)
Stats: 14.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.9 APG, 14.6 PER
Obviously, Dwyane Wade is not having an All-Star season, but if Kobe Bryant can be voted in averaging 17 points on 36% shooting, I'll go to my grave saying that the third greatest shooting guard ever deserves the legacy All Star Game selection that Kobe and Jordan got. Some people may disagree because he's technically not deserving, but I'm being consistent with tradition. Also, I'm a bit of a homer as a lifelong D-Wade fan. The black Miami Vice jersey that came in the mail the other week for me reinforced that love. I think it's only right that we reward one of the greatest players in the history of this game with one final all star appearance before he rides off into the sunset.
East Starter #3 - Kawhi Leonard (F - Toronto Raptors)
Stats: 27.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 31 APG, 50% FG, 36% 3FG, 1.8 SPG
Kawhi has been heralded as the best "two-way" player in the league for quite some time now. While I fail to see the difference between "best two-way player" and "best player", there is no doubt that Kawhi has emerged as one of the league's premiere players, and probably a top 5 player. He's averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists, and has helped Toronto lead them to the 2nd best record in the East, currently sitting at 34-13. He's stepped up and delivered huge performances against other top teams in the league such as the Bucks and the Warriors, and has emerged as a reliable option down the stretch. The intrigue surrounding him is in regards to his free agency status and whether or not he will stay in Toronto past this year. With the way he's been playing, fans better hope the team and the country has left an impression on him.
East Starter #4 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (F - Milwaukee Bucks)
Stats: 26.4 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.6 BLK, 58% FG
If your jaw didn't drop seeing those numbers, then I have nothing else to tell you. We all expected Giannis to take some sort of leap this season, and he's doing just that, grabbing almost three more rebounds from last year, dishing out a career high in assists and shooting an absurd 58% from the field. He's also 2nd in the league in PER (29.1), trailing only Anthony Davis. Defenses had better pray that he doesn't get a consistent jumper, because if he's able to step up and hit a 3 in clutch time or even develop his perimeter game, he has the potential to become one of the most unguardable players in NBA history. At the current pace the Bucks are going, they may finish with their highest team record since a player by the name of Kareem-Abdul Jabaar played for them in 1970.
East Starter #5 - Joel Embiid (26.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 BPG, 49% FG)
While Embiid hasn't been the most efficient from the floor this year (51% eFG) partly due to his decline in 3-point shooting (career low 29% this year) , there's no doubt that he's deserving of being Phildaelphia's first All Star starter since Allen Iverson in 2006. While Embiid suffered from the lingering curse that seemed to be looking over Philadelphia's lottery picks over the years, it looks like good health has rewarded Embiid, and is finally starting to reach the potential that people said that he had. Based on the numbers he's putting up, the comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon may not be that far-fetched. He is only 24, after all. As a matter of fact, since 1980, only Moses Malone and Shaq have averaged the points and rebounds have averaged the points and rebounds Embiid is putting up this year. The dynamic with Simmons can still be shaky at times in late game situations, but there is no doubt Embiid is the center of the future.
East Reserve #1 - Victor Oladipo (G - Indiana Pacers)
Stats: 20.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.8 SPG
It's actually been a bit of an uneven season for Oladipo. In lieu of his breakout year with the Pacers last season, I was expecting him to make that next jump. While his rebounds and assists are higher, his scoring, shooting numbers and steals are down all across the board. He has missed 11 games with a knee injury which may have influenced that, but in spite of it, Oladipo has played well enough to justify an all star position. The Indiana Pacers are also one of the overachieving teams of this season, as they currently sit as the third seed in the East which is higher than teams with high expectations coming into this year such as the Celtics and Sixers. The Pacers have beaten both of those teams as well. While it's been a holistic effort, Oladipo's play tends to rub off on his teammates often.
East Reserve #2 - D'Angelo Russell (G - Brooklyn Nets)
Stats: 19.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 6.4 APG
I have no apologies for this one. The Nets weren't really expected to go anywhere this year. However, they currently sit as the sixth seed in the East, and this improbable run which has seen the Nets win 14 out of their last 19 games has been comandeered by this man, D'Angelo Russell. He's averaging career highs in points and assists and has stepped up huge in Caris LaVert's absence. The Nets are overlooked because they are not a big market team, but Russell has played incredibly well, and while there are plenty of ways he can improve, he has been Brooklyn's heartbeat.
East Reserve #3 - Blake Griffin (F - Detroit Pistons)
Stats: 25.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.3 APG, 47% FG
It's been somewhat of a resurgence for heralded high-flying power forward, averaging the 12th most PPG in the league, and a personal high. His ability to distribute the basketball is also an underrated characteristic of his, dishing out over five a game and forming a formidable frontline with Andre Drummond. The Pistons currently sit at one game out of the loss column for the final seed in the Eastern Conference. At one point in his career, Blake Griffin was a liability from the free throw line, shooting as low as 52%. But now, he's hoisting over 6 threes a game, which is a career high for him, and he's hitting them at a career high rate of 36%. If he and his fellow All Star big can continue to dominate with contributions from the backcourt, the Pistons can be a formidable first round opponent.
East Reserve #4 - Andre Drummond (C - Detroit Pistons)
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 14.9 RPG, 1.6 STL, 1.8 BLK, 50% FG
Blake Griffin's frontcourt parter in line, Andre Drummond, hasn't been a slouch either. He is also having a career year scoring the basketball and is averaging the 2nd highest rebounding totals of his career. Drummond has proven to serve as a great compliment to Griffin's mid-range and passing abilities. Drummond's play is hard to overlook because he's strictly a blue-collar guy, and nothing he does is particularly exciting. Even if you're new to the sport, you could see why he leads the league in rebounding just by watching. The dirty work he has been doing for the Pistons has led him to be on pace to surpass Ben Wallace and perhaps even Dennis Rodman to become the greatest rebounder in Piston history. If both Drummond and Griffin makes it like they deserve to, it will be the first time since 2008 when the Pistons sent at least two all stars to the All Star game (Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace).
East Reserve #5 - Nikola Vucevic (C - Orlando Magic)
Stats: 20.1 PPG, 1201 RPG, 3.7 APG, 52% FG
The Orlando Magic haven't exactly set anyone on fire as the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference, and barring collapses from the team above them, it would appear their playoff drought since 2012 is set to continue. However, choosing Vucevic for his first all star selection was actually an easy decision. First, the Magic aren't bad to the point where I can ignore his greatness. Nikola is currently only one of five players in the league averaging 20 points and 12 rebounds (Giannis, Embiid, Davis, KAT). In a losing effort to the Clippers, Nikola dropped a stat-line of 16 points, 24 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 blocks. Since 1980, only Vlade Divac, Kevin Garnett and Charles Barkley has posted a stat line with those numbers. Vucevic isn't somebody in the spotlight and he plays for a team that is still developing, but best believe he's an all star, and depending on who you ask, he's been that for some time.
East Reserve #6 - Kemba Walker (G - Charlotte Hornets)
Stats: 25.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.7 APG, 22.2 PER
I'll be honest in saying that I am not exactly Kemba Walker's biggest fan, but I do recognize his individual talent. It's gotten to the point where the hashtag #FreeKemba to get Walker out of Charlotte has risen to prominence because he's dialed in many great performances for the Hornets that have resulted in losing efforts. He has scored 41 on opening night against Milwaukee, 47 against Washington and even 60 points against Philadelphia, but the Hornets lost all those games. While they do sit as the 7th seed in the East, they are also under .500, and no one is counting them as somebody that can threaten the top four seeds in the East. While his great individual ability has not always resulted in wins, he should be rewarded with an All Star selection. And besides, All Star Weekend is in Charlotte.
East Reserve #7 - Ben Simmons (G - Philadelphia 76ers)
Stats: 16.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 8.2 APG, 58% FG
I had to think long and hard about this one, so much so it got to the point where I was intentionally looking for a reason to not give Simmons an All Star selection. But since I thought he got snubbed last year, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt this year. Ben Simmons is 15th in the league in field goal percentage, and while he is 6'10, the fourteen people above him are all non-perimeter players. Simmons' ability to pass the basketball as well as rebound has people calling him a LITE version of LeBron James. Of course, as we all know, the long-running joke with Simmons is his inability, or rather, unwillingness, to shoot jump shots. This has caused Philadelphia's offense to flounder in late game situations because Simmons is unable to spread the floor. This allows opposing defenses to swarm in on fellow threats Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid. Despite that, Simmons seems to have a great understanding for the game, and he should be rewarded for his consistency.
Snubs:
Kyle Lowry: I'm bound to get some heat for this one, and probably rightfully so. Lowry's numbers doesn't look the greatest on its surface, and he has career lows in certain areas. But he has been Toronto's lifeblood for the longest time and he has continued to come through for Toronto. Unfortunately, I decided to reward Russell with the spot in lieu of his breakout season.
Bradley Beal: Beal's averaging a career high in points, but with John Wall out for the rest of the season, that is to be expected. Unfortunately, the Wizards find themselves in basketball purgatory, where they aren't bad enough to be in position to get a lottery pick, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Beal has also never shot more threes in his career (7.3), but hasn't shot it as bad as he has this year either (35%).
Hassan Whiteside: Whiteside is sixth in the league in rebounds and third in the league in blocks, yet I somehow can't elude the notion that he actually underperforms. I don't know what it is, but I like Bam Abadeyo so much more. This isn't to say Whiteside can't be an asset, but there are also a lot of fundamentals that he has yet to work on.
Zach LaVine: LaVine is averaging a career year in points, rebounds and assists while shooting his best FG%, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has the 6th highest usage rate in the league (31.5). Unfortunately for him, since he is on a team that is tied for the third worst record in the league, a lot of those stats prove to be empty. And considering his usage and free range of shot selection, his eFG% of only 51 is kind of lackluster.
John Collins: Okay, so he's played only 23 games, so I guess he hasn't played enough to be even considered a snub. But correct me if I'm wrong, John Collins should be a candidate for Most Improved Player if his ankle holds out, right? Last season, he averaged 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds on 57% shooting. This year, that shooting number has stayed the same, but those points and rebounds averages have increased to 19.1 and 10.4. If those averages hold up, he'll be one of 8 Hawks in the history of the franchise to average a double-double. Of course, since the Hawks stink and his lack of games played, he isn't a realistic choice.
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