Houston, we have problems... but they are correctable

After Tuesday night's 111-104 win at home over the surging Portland Trailblazers, the Rockets are looking to string together some wins and climb the ranks of the conference with 8 of their next 11 games being at home. They now sit at 12-14 which can be misleading, as the first seeded Nuggets have 9 losses, the fourth seeded Lakers and Clippers have 10 losses each, and the Rockets are only two games in the loss column from the eighth seed. Promising, but for a team coming off a franchise record 65 wins (best in the league) and expected to be a true contender and threat to the Warriors yet again, being a fringe playoff team is not alright at any point of the season. The Rockets set the bar astronomically high (lol couldn't resist) for themselves in this new era with Chris Paul. Also, when you are led by that Hall of Fame Point God in tandem with the MVP James Harden (who both combine for arguably the second best duo in the league and maybe the best guard combination ever), your expectations are a lot higher than any team not named Golden State.

The Rockets have a multitude of problems at the moment. They put together an almost complete game versus the Blazers in their most recent game. They found themselves in a 15-point hole early in the first when Coach D'Antoni was forced to take a time out. In that timeout, Coach mention postgame that it was Chris Paul who stepped up vocally in the huddle. "You know, you start off with Chris, when he came back in there. He was ticked off, he was mad. He got into people and posed his will, and everybody kind of took the cue from him." Leading both vocally and by example is something that is not new for CP3, but the fact that the team is in the rut that they've somewhat endured shows that his touch in that department has been slightly off so far. This could be the turning point.

Looking at the first 26 games as a whole, there is plenty to pick out regarding issues with the team. Here are the one's that I see have been the most troublesome.

Issues

1.) The Trio of Paul-Harden-Capela

Their three highest-salaried players are their advantage nightly. Last season, they were 43-3 when Paul-Harden-Capela played together. The maturation and evolution of Capela should only make this dynamic trio even more effective. However, with Capela seemingly coming into the season out of shape some (after cashing in on a deal worth 5 yr/$15 million), he got off to a very slow and less impactful/active start. Chris Paul started well with a 32 point, 10 assist, 7 rebound game where he dominated the Lakers, but the suspended for a few games because of a fight with Lakers G Rajon Rondo seemingly threw his rhythm off some. This is combined with the handful of games he's had to miss with a shooting hand and hamstring injury. Then Harden has missed a few games with miscellaneous injuries as well. They all individually have to be themselves and available. This, alone, mitigates most of their issues and will return them to that Western Conference and league-wide powerhouse.

2.) Defense/Rebounding/Pace... all intertwined

A lot of talk around the league regarding Houston eventually keys in on their pace. They are currently at the second slowest pace in the league, which is not surprising considering their age (the oldest team top to bottom in the league), and even more so the fact that they have struggled in most games to string together stops. You cannot create pace without getting stops defensively, with some consistency. Even more, when you get a defensive stop, the defensive possession is not over until the rebound is corralled, which they struggle mightily with as well. Clint Capela is one of the league's best rebounders. However, in a constantly switching defense, he does not have the luxury of pitching a tent around the restricted area defensively the way a Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan-type big man does.. Capela is often times at the top of the key or on the wing by the end of the possession, not in the natural rebounding position for a big man. Here lies one of the scenarios where mentioning the loss of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute holds actual merit. Those two, with their long wingspans, activity, and fundamental boxing out, found themselves pulling in rebounds often along with PJ Tucker. This is not happening frequently enough with this seasons team so far as the Rockets are 28th in the league in team rebounding. Far too often, they allow for multiple-opportunity possessions for their opponents. Over the course of 48 minutes, allowing any NBA team to dominate the boards and garner extra possessions will hurt you. It's been a cyclical occurrence that has been a thorn in the side of Coach D'Antoni and his club. These two issues both come down to effort. Multiple efforts per possession rather easily gives you a chance in winning those 50/50 balls. We will get to this later, but the Rockets also need another body to viably rely on in the rebounding department.

3.) Chris Paul

The aforementioned Chris Paul has struggled with injuries to his shooting hand/arm as well as a hamstring twinge. All things considered, he has not been quite himself at the consistency that he has made a staple in his career. He has a handful of games where he has been himself, but the games where he has not quite been himself outnumber those. For the Rockets, Chris' activity and leadership cannot waver. Last season, he mentioned multiple times that he does not have to score every night to have a winning impact on this team, and that holds true this season as well. Look at Tuesday nights game alone where he had just 11 points, but 10 rebounds. 10 assists and 3 steals.

His all-around talent allows for him to focus on specific areas per game/per match-up and seek to destroy accordingly. Sometimes the honus to score is on him though, and this season he has not been scoring at the same clip as he has for his career (currently averaging a career low 16.4 ppg coupled by a career low percentage from the field at 42%). This can be attributed to the shooting hand/arm injuries he's had, but he has not used those as an excuse so neither will we. He has to up his impact across the board. Another area where he could be better at is with his pace. D'Antoni's teams are known for being high-paced and playing in the open court. He has not pushed the ball at the same pace as he did last season when commanding the second unit, but again that goes to the defense and rebounding deficiencies of the team. 7 seconds or less has to be the stylistic choice of attack again for this team. They have not played to their identity frequently enough but when they have, the results are evident. Expect for the 33 year-old point guard to infuse the team with energy moving forward as he did in the video above, and combine those efforts with the typical otherworldly efficient play that garnered him the nickname "Point God" and cemented him as a top point guard of all-time. So for you boxscore watchers that do not watch the games, it is premature and extremely inaccurate to suggest that he is "washed" in any sense because he's had bad shooting/scoring nights. In most of the games where he has struggled to shoot or score, his impact was felt in multiple spurts and in different areas of the game. If you want to go that route, look back at a handful of the game log's from last season where he had single digit scoring games but he was still able to take over games with his all around play.

4.) The Bench

Once a strong suit and almost nightly advantage for the Rockets, this seasons version (so far...) has been rather disappointing (and that's being nice). Through 25 games, their bench ranks dead last in PPG at 28.2, and in FG% at 38%. Essentially, if the starters did not perform well, the bench has done nothing to help the cause. Gerald Green has not shot the ball well and although his defense is never really notable, he's typically passable on that end. However even that has been bad, and his activity (which almost never wades) has been missing. He recent came back after missing a few games and his activity has picked up. Nene, the elder statesmen of the team, is just now getting back into the rotation after missing the first quarter of the season. His services will help in spelling Capela and on the glass. The biggest issues, however, come with the wing position and Eric Gordon. The former has been "plug and play" addressed by a guy from the G League in Danuel House, or by rookie Gary Clark. Both have been alright, but should not be middle of the rotation guys on a contender like the Rockets. Filling the void left with Mbah A Moute's absence off the bench has been a challenge for D'Antoni but as mentioned before, we will address bringing in available guys to address this later. The latter half of the final issues with the bench has come with Eric Gordon. A player who has been a consistent sixth man of the year candidate and a winner of that award as well as a 3-pt contest, has been missing in action in most games so far. He typically brings 3 dynamics to the Rockets attack. Peak Gordon brings spark plug scoring, extreme floor spacing from 3, and change of pace from the bench. This season, he has struggled to be either of the 3, and that contributes to the team's struggles. Early in the season, he missed an eyebrow raising amount of lay-ups and open 3 pointers by the same measure. He is slowly but surely getting to his old ways and this could not come soon enough as the bench unit is in dire need of his presence.

5.) Offense

For as dynamic as their roster is on paper, and how they had a historically great/efficient output on that end last season, they took a nose dive of sorts so far this season. This is, in large part, due to a few things. The first being turnovers. James Harden is a top three playmaker in the NBA, however, his very loose nature of ball handling leaves him frustratingly turnover prone. The last three seasons combined, Harden is averaging 9.8 apg, but an eye popping 5.2 topg in combination. His decision making sometimes hurts the team as the turnovers put the team at a severe disadvantage when changing ends of the floor. This is where the ultimate luxury of replacing your best player as primary ball handler with a ultra viable Hall of Fame point guard in Chris Paul comes to play. When Paul runs the offense, the Rockets typically get into more sets and get cleaner looks. It's no knock on Harden, it's rather the difference between having a true point guard, one of the best ever, doing it, versus having a scorer running the offense. At times, their offense becomes stagnant and predictable. It comes rather easy because with the tandem of Paul and Harden, much offense is not needed to be ran on a possession to possession basis. But when there is a lull, Coach D'Antoni needs to get them back to running their stuff (dribble handoffs, off ball screens, pindowns, and player movement). This here is an abbreviated visual representation of what I am getting at, but the ball movement, player movement, and multiple efforts I have spoken about are all highlighted here.

The Rockets had many little caveats in there offense like rescreening for a screener on top off high iq off the ball cuts that made for one of the best offenses ever last season. An adjusted attack of the offense where Paul and Harden dribble or hold the ball less per possession will go a long way with their health and stamina later on into the season.

Other ways to address these issues

This Saturday, December 15th, players signed over the summer become available to trade as the February deadline approaches. Along with that comes an opportunity for GM Daryl Morey to work his magic and look to reassemble this roster to return to (or close to) last years form. All players I mention below will be guys that I feel would bring an infusion of energy and effort, as well as size, skill, and 3-point shooting to the Rockets. As far as trade pieces go, the Rockets have Marquiss Chriss and Brandon Knight who will undoubtedly be included in any transaction. I also feel that if the right deal emerges, Morey would not fret too much at trading Eric Gordon. Those three contracts could be used in separate deals to bring in multiple players, or in one to match the salary of harder to attain guys.

In no particular order here are the easier to attainable guys the Rockets could salary match with to address issues.

F James Johnson (Miami Heat), F Kent Bazemore (Atlanta Hawks), F Nic Batum (Charlotte Hornets), DeMarre Carroll F (Brooklyn Nets), F Markieff Morris (Washington Wizards), F Jon Simmons (Orlando Magic), Allen Crabbe G/F (Brooklyn Nets), G Justin Holiday (Chicago Bulls).

Here is the target that is going to be harder to attain, but should undoubtedly be targeted to make a call for.

F Otto Porter Jr. (Washington Wizards)

Each of the players listed above is either having a subpar season, on a team that is not using them, or on a team that is not playing well. These situations make for the specific players to be attainable. Should the Rockets be able to attain 2 of the players from above, they will do themselves a great favor. Any two of these players would combine to help push the needle, make the team more dynamic, bring size, rebounding, skill, viability, and trustworthiness. Helping lessen or completely replace the losses of Ariza and Mbah a Moute is very much possible. Those two were not great, or as good as the media makes them seem. But the little things they brought to the table (as mentioned above), and consistency, have been hard to replace/replicate so far.

Above, Porter Jr. shows off his midrange, 3-pt shooting, off the ball cutting, playmaking, defense, and ability to create his own looks.

If I were Daryl Morey, I would focus solely on all avenues that pry Otto Porter Jr. from the Wizards. After increasing in attempts each of the last 3 season's, he's only averaging 9.5 per game (Averaged 10.4 the last 3 seasons combined). His minutes have been inconsistent/down from the previous 3 seasons, and has ended a handful of games on the bench as Coach Scott Brooks has elected to close with Oubre Jr. often.. There would be cap repercussions to adding him with his 3 year, $26 million deal, but to add him would essentially be bringing in a younger, more athletic, quick release shooting 3 & D wing. A better version of Ariza. Doing so will cost them Brandon Knight (or Marquiss Chriss) as well as Eric Gordon and a draft pick or two. Porter's services fill a need and do so viably, and any true contender has that viable name (or two) on the wing. Inserting Porter into that starting line-up and being able to bring James Ennis off the bench makes a world of a difference (and could very well be an upgrade to the much talked about Ariza-Mbah a Moute combo). Porter, outside of being a marksmen from deep and being solid on defense, has even more untapped potential defensively (in my opinion) as well as being a solid rebounder. Attaining Porter would take up any trade assets the Rockets have, but he addresses so many needs it would be no issue. The buyout market will also allow for other opportunities to round out the roster this season.

In Conclusion

Houston has signature wins at Denver, vs Golden State, at LA Lakers, in Indiana, vs Portland, and in San Antonio, but the issue is how far in between these big wins have been. The league had a hard time adjusting to the high octane, 2 elite playmaking, high volume 3pt shooting attack of the Rockets last season, teams have made their adjustments to their attack, and have made adjustments to the ever-switching defensive strategy they deploy. It is now time for the Rockets to adjust to the adjustments made to their attacks. Sure, the size, 3 pt shooting, length, activity, and dynamic in IQ and mindset Ariza and Mbah A Moute are missed, but those two are very replaceable. The need for guys that bring that infusion of energy and effort can be addressed as presently assembled as well as via trade. The Rockets had an issue in mindset were they had to realize that teams have gotten better and you cannot just fast forward to the Western Conference Finals again. You have to re-earn everything you got last season to get that opportunity to advance to the finals again. Should the aforementioned changes be made and addressed, in combination with a trade or two to address needs, I see no reason why the Rockets won't be facing the Warriors in the Conference Finals again in late May. Time will tell, but they should start clicking again soon. So no, the window for a championship has not closed after only being 25 games into the season following a 65 win campaign that ended a quarter away from the Finals. They are sorting out their issues slowly but surely, and before you know it, they will return to form.

*All stats and information accurate entering games on schedule for Tuesday, December 12th and come directly from https://www.basketball-reference.com/ unless stated otherwise*